I wish I could help you here but it's very complex. First, it IS true, that in most programs, home and especially home nocturnal patients tend to be younger, and often fitter. This is just a fact ... and it often one of the major selection bias issues thrown back at home programs to point out their better survival data. And, selection bias IS an issue. So ... home and home nocturnal patients - as a group - start out younger.
Next, more home and home nocturnal patients transition to transplantation ... so, for years of survival of ESRD, the data is confounded by transplantation outcomes.
That said, the data certainly suggests much greater longevity at home, and especially in the home nocturnal high intensity dialysis group, and, in several Canadian and US reports - albeit troubled by many of the same undeniable biases - the outcomes (the survival) in home nocturnal dialysis patients parallels the survival of deceased donor (but are not as good as living donor) transplant recipients.
But for any one individual patient? ... sadly, it is impossible to say.